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Título:
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The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?
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Autores:
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Calvo Fernández, Natalia ;
Iza San Juan, Maddalen ;
otros, ...
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Tipo de documento:
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texto impreso
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Editorial:
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Wiley-Blackwell, 2016-04
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Dimensiones:
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application/pdf
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Nota general:
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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Idiomas:
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Palabras clave:
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Estado = Publicado
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Materia = Ciencias: Física: Astrofísica
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Materia = Ciencias: Física: Astronomía
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Tipo = Artículo
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Resumen:
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Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics (high-top') and models that do not (low-top'). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (December-March) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)) and how they relate to predictive skill on intraseasonal to seasonal time-scales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.
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En línea:
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https://eprints.ucm.es/38405/1/calvofernandez34postprint.pdf
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