Título:
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The Impact of Jumps and Leverage in Forecasting the Co-Volatility of Oil and Gold Futures
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Autores:
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Asai, Manabu ;
Gupta, Rangan ;
McAleer, Michael
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Tipo de documento:
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texto impreso
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Editorial:
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Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales. Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico (ICAE), 2019
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Dimensiones:
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application/pdf
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Nota general:
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info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
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Idiomas:
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Palabras clave:
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Estado = Publicado
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Materia = Ciencias Sociales: Economía: Econometría
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Tipo = Documento de trabajo o Informe técnico
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Resumen:
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The paper investigates the impact of jumps in forecasting co-volatility in the presence of leverage effects. We modify the jump-robust covariance estimator of Koike (2016), such that the estimated matrix is positive definite. Using this approach, we can disentangle the estimates of the integrated co-volatility matrix and jump variations from the quadratic covariation matrix. Empirical results for daily crude oil and gold futures show that the co-jumps of the two futures have significant impacts on future co-volatility, but that the impact is negligible in forecasting weekly and monthly horizons.
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En línea:
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https://eprints.ucm.es/54770/1/1912.pdf
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